Pure Synchronicity

I just got the quarterly Cycle report from Fidelity.  Quite extensive and very nicely done.  The economy is actually in good shape contrary to all the false hype coming out of the GOP debates.  Of course we all know those clowns just make it up as they go.

They make a strong case that we are just entering the “late-cycle” and that the U.S. recession risk is low.  Here is a chart of where we stand in the cycle relative to the other three largest economies.   What usually drives the transition from mid-cycle to late-cycle is inflation, which regarding commodities, has been absent.  Wages have been increasing and therefore wage inflation has been gaining traction.

Historical performance patterns of stock sectors is as follows and could be used as a guide, going forward, in your investing allocations.

Here is a great infographic on the recent ADP payroll statistics, showing solid gains however not really enough to bring us back to much lower a much lower employment rate. February private payrolls grew 198,000 but that just keeps us from getting worse. We need over 250,000 to really make up for all the jobs lost.