Pure Synchronicity

Nate Silver (the guy whose predictions for the last presidential election were right on) has a website called FiveThirtyEight.com.  In his sports section he has a neat forecasting model for the NCAA tournament.  He calculates the chance of each team reaching each round, taking into account a composite of power rankings, pre-season rankings, the team’s placement on the NCAA’s 68-team S-curve, player injuries and geography.  After each round it is updated so the odds change based on outcomes.  Click here for the page with the odds shown in bracket form or table form.  I thought it would be interesting to see how the teams with the highest chance of winning it all turn out.

Right now the top teams and their chance % follows:

Louisville 15%
Florida 15%
Univ. of Arizona 13%
Kansas 7%
Virginia 6%
Michigan State 6%
Wichita State 5%

Lets see how it plays out.

It seems hard to believe Kate and I went to Yosemite almost 5 years ago. Going thru some photos from that trip I found this picture that needed a little help so it was a good one to practise my Adobe Lightroom on. Here is the photo after being developed. It was a river running thru Yosemite Valley.

The universe is so incredibly  large, beyond our imagination, that I have always thought it’s egotistical for anyone to think us humans are the highest and only forms of life in the entire universe.  As Dr. Neil deGrasse Tyson states there are more stars in the universe than all the grains of sand on earth.  In this video he describes the logic behind the idea that there are other more intelligent forms of life out there.  I find his argument incredibly compelling.

The Nasdaq 100 has gone from 1040 to over 3600 since 3/09, just less than 5 years. Looking at the monthly chart, the ADX shows it’s in dangerous territory, overbought and due for a correction. But before taking profits or shorting I would be looking for the ADX to cut down from this level, the ergodic to crossover down, and the orange ball to be taken out with a monthly close below 3300 signaling the correction is in play. Target range 2000-2500.

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This year the Stewart part of the family met up in Portland at Joe and Nat’s house for Thanksmas.  Nat did an awesome job decorating and making some amazing food for all of us.  Joe had the house loaded with all kinds of great beers and let Kate and I stay in his office above the garage.  Nat even moved a full bed up there so we were away from all the noise.  Generally we go to bed much earlier than the rest.  The grandkids were awesome as usual and so fun to watch.  Ace and River were so excited to be with their California cousins.  Ace was so sad to see them leave come Sunday.  All the little kids are so upbeat and happy, especially little River, only 15 months who walks around with a big smile on his face, getting into everything.  These kids are just a joy to be around.

One day we went to the mall and everyone but Kate, me and River went ice skating, or at least tried to skate.  Olallie did the best. Molly did the worst. We visited Powell’s bookstore in downtown Portland, the largest book store in the world.  It was like going to a library except all the books were for sale.  The farmers market on the college campus was packed with great organic foods and a fun place to stroll thru, even though it was a bit chilly and overcast.   A lot of monopoly and chess was played. Oh and charades, if you can imagine trying to do the movie Avatar, quite the challenge.  Seemed like a game was constantly going on.  Everyone loved their gifts, I know I did mine.  The thanksmas dinner was vegan, vegetarian and dead animal meat for us normal people.  Main course of meatballs (or mushroom balls), fantastic mashed potatoes, cranberries, squash, and much much more.  Kate made a couple pecan pies which were devoured over the 4 days.

Overall Portland is a great city and I certainly wouldn’t mind living there.   Although the tv show Portlandia satirizes it, I found the consciousness there to be at a high level, seemingly much more than here in Placer county, CA.  A very environmentally green city.   I also really appreciated the interested architecture.  Many craftsman style homes.

My photos weren’t so great, somewhat out of focus as I was avoiding the flash, but Jamie’s B&W photos turned out quite good so I have included them below.

Atticus, Ace, Olallie, and River

Me and those cute kids

Atticus and Ace

Nana with the boys at the farmers market

Jamie, Angela and my sweet Kate

Ace in our bedroom getting us up to play

Kate and I

Neil and Molly

Gramps

Molly and Kate

Joe and Natasha on the left, Monopoly night

Atticus and Ace, two goofballs

Joe and Jamie got matching tattoos

Spoon to nose contest

Angela was awesome at this

Molly at the skating rink

Kate with River while the rest tried to skate

Our four adorable grandkids, my photo not Jamies (his were better)

My last campout at Jackson Meadows 11/4 – 11/7/13.   The forest service left open Pass Creek campground but there was no one there.  I had the whole lake to myself for three whole days.  It was amazing.  Actually when I got there on Monday, there was a solo fisherman camped just below me in the overload CG.  He left early the next morning after catching four trout Monday nite, one huge one.

The Hennesey Pass road out there, had some icy spots which made me a little nervous if I was to meet up with a logging truck going the opposite direction.  That could have put me out of the dry ruts and onto some slippery stuff, however, it didn’t happen.  Weather was gorgeous in the low 30s at nite and 50s during the day.

As far as fishing, they didn’t seem to want what I had to offer for the first 2 days.  I was using power bait then I tried every lure in my tackle box.  Finally I decided to add more weight to  my sliders and use the red powerbait.  This allowed me to cast out further and into deeper water.  Bingo!  It resulted in a beauty.  A 19″ rainbow trout who was a real fighter getting him in.  This was Wednesday nite, then the next morning, I caught another smaller one, around 12″ but I let him go.  I figured that big boy was enough for me.

Kate and I had it for dinner when I got back, and between the two of us we could only eat half of it.  The rest will be another meal.  We cooked it on the bbq and tried a new method of slicing it down the sides and back, and stuffing it with garlic, butter, rosemary and lemon.   Then Kate made a butter, wine and capers sauce to put over it.  So tender and tasty.

With no one around, I only heard the sounds of the geese, ducks, birds, lapping of water on the lake and wind in the pines.  It was such a heartwarming feeling.  A really sweet connection with this place.  I also find it interesting and fun to walk thru the empty campgrounds, the absolute stillness as a contrast to the summertime hustle and bustle of campers which ended only a month earlier.  And walking along the shoreline as the water level keeps dropping, displaying new things to see and places to explore, all previously hidden under the water.

Cool stump

English mountain in the background

Sierra Buttes in the background

Ben loves rolling in the snow patches.

The dogs exploring what was previously hidden underwater.

Site 19 at Pass Creek Campground

Reflections

Lake was down over 50 ft.

Biggs had a sweater and his Patagonia

Reflections in the water

English Mountain

Ben and Freddie the big trout

My favorite spot to fish.

On October 31st, Kate, I and the dogs went to Wrights Beach for her birthday weekend.  We lucked out with the weather, being nice and sunny, no wind and mild temperatures.  Brought our bikes and road the Kartum trail along the cliffs.  It was gorgeous.  We saw no whales this time but did see a seal checking us out in Duncan Cove.  We stayed in site #1 which was pretty  nice, good for handling the dogs and easy access to the beach, right outside our door.

Ben

Wrights Beach from Duncans Landing viewpoint

Kate getting cell service at duncans landing

Down to Duncans Cove

At duncans cove

Looking south from duncans cove

Biggs

Seal at duncans cove

So relaxing reading at the beach

Site #1

Riding along Kartum trail

View to Wrights Beach from Kartum trail

looking north from Kartum

Awesome view from this rock.

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Here are the most current TED Talks, in easy to enjoy format.. (more…)

Due to the government shutdown most campgrounds were closed.  Many prematurely since they were due to close later on in October.  However, the Pass Creek overload campground, by the boat launch was still open as it is every year.  No facilities like water and bathrooms but a nice place to camp right on the lake.  So for the five days 10/14 to 10/18 I stayed there with Ben and Biggs, fishing.  I caught a couple nice rainbows however I didnt do as well as others, especially the boat fisherman.  Weather was delightful but cold at night, waking in the morning to 35 in the camper.  Lucky I had two dogs to keep me warm.  The lake was down the most so far this year, as you can see from the photos which provided some real interesting beach combing.  I think I have found about 4 or 5 rampela fishing lures this year once the water started receding.  Found one huge one  on this trip.

The sunset Wednesday nite was truly amazing.  I am having such a tough time selecting which sunset photos to put up since it just kept getting better and better.  I am showing the top two but there are 3 others that are definitely worthy of showing also.

Although, I can go up to this Pass Creek CG again this year (since they don’t close it) it will not be accessible once it snows.  Hopefully I can fit in one more trip before that happens.

Pass Creek overflow campground. I was the RV far right, nestled near the trees and a quick path to the lake.

Mergansers

A couple fellows I was sharing the campground with had some great luck. Here Denny caught a 3.5lb – 21″ Rainbow.

This is the shoreline for East Meadows campground where I usually stay.

Ben looking for crawdads

Patiently waiting for me to catch a fish

Me and the guys fishing

Ben

Kate’s favorite sunset photo

My favorite sunset photo